Don't short the market now

Global markets have been subjected to unpredictable events in the past one month. Do the technicals suggest that the worst has been priced in? Well, Philip Roth chief technical analyst at Miller Tabak believes so. Though he doesn't see a big sustained move without preparation but a slight new high is possible according to him.

"Resistance for S&P 500 is seen at 1,330-1,340. For the Dow industrial average has resistance between 12,300 and 12,400. I think both these resistance areas can be bettered by a bit by maybe 3-5% but I think we should view this cyclical bull market as in the very mature stages," he told CNBC-TV18 in an exclusive interview.

The commodity outlook

Extremely positive on the metal space, Roth said though he doesn’t see a big move up right now, the long-term patterns seem favourable. "Probably the best-looking stock of all the metals is the least sensitive of all—gold,"

Two nations, One dream

India and Pakistan will come to an absolute standstill when 22 men - carrying the hopes of two emotionally charged-up nations - will put themselves in the line of fire for a place in the World Cup final.

All roads will lead to the northern part of India, where the city of Mohali will host the second semifinal of the 2011 World Cup and the match-up couldn't have been more even.

While expectations soar on both sides of the border, tempers are sure to reach a crescendo and emotions set to drool over when the two teams line up for their national anthems before an epic.

The journey for the two estranged neighbours though hasn't been without a few bumps before and during the World Cup.

Bloodshed in the Pakistan heartland during Sri Lanka's tour there had devastating consequences. The ICC snatched the World Cup holding rights from Pakistan as a penalty and cricket deprivation in terror-infested Pakistan deepened.

Pakistan bit the bullet by dropping the likes of Mohammad Yousuf and Shoaib Malik coming into the mega event after surfing over tsunamic tides of match-ixing in England.

Indecisiveness over naming the captain made the PCB look inept at handling team affairs. Only a turnaround in New Zealand helped restore sanity and Shahid Afridi was handed over the reins.

Unexpectedly, Pakistan took the blows on its chin, only to turn back and land a few in the World Cup. Wins over Sri Lanka and Australia lifted the gloom in the Pakistani dressing room. But the unpredictability of Pakistan did raise its head in the close shave against Canada and a hammering at the hands of New Zealand. However, in the quarterfinal, they demolished Caribbean dreams of a revival. And now, they have an Indian mountain to climb in the semifinals.

India's build-up, though more settled, had its fair share of problems. Piyush Chawla's inclusion didn't go down well with the fans, followed by a setback in the form of Praveen Kumar's elbow injury that ruled him out and gave S Sreesanth a new lease of life.

India's ride into the semifinals was far from one associated with tournament favourites. If the tie against England after scoring 338 was a heartbreak, unable to defend 14 runs in the last over against South Africa was depressing. A win in the final league game against West Indies brought back some confidence, which got a boost after Yuvraj Singh and Suresh Raina held their nerves to beat Australia in the quarterfinals.

And when India's semifinal against Pakistan was confirmed, the whole nation joined a bandwagon where everyone, while getting charged up, started to cash in.

India and Pakistan are not new to the hype that their face-offs generate. However, Indian skipper MS Dhoni downplayed that and urged his teammates to concentrate on the job at hand.

"Well, we know the kind of media hype India-Pakistan matches generate. We are not getting involved in all this. We need to know what we are expected to do and focus on that.

"It is not really affecting us. We all know it is a big tournament and we have prepared a lot. Our preparations have been the same like what we have done in the past few days," said Dhoni.

Commenting on the Pakistan team, Dhoni said they have a balanced bowling attack, which is also in good form.

"They have a good bowling attack. Their seamers and spinners are doing a good job; the part-timers are also doing well. In sub-continental conditions, these players play a role. All-rounders like Abdul Razzak and (Shahid) Afridi give them the liberty to play extra bowlers," he said.

Afridi sounded pretty composed and said the pressure was squarely on India.

"There is no pressure on us and that's why we are enjoying our cricket. We weren't the favourites coming into the tournament. But we have played above expectations. India were always the favourites and certainly the pressure will be on them," said Afridi.

About whether Shoaib Akhtar will play Wednesday's semifinal, Afridi said, "Shoaib is not 100 per cent fit but he is trying his best. We will take a decision on his inclusion this evening."

The occasion will also be graced by the Prime Ministers of the two estranged neighbours, after Yusuf Raza Gilani accepted Manmohan Singh's invitation to watch the match with him.

While politics has once again found cricket as an opportunity for diplomacy, the game will take centrestage on Wednesday when a charged-up Mohali will witness an epic unfold in the middle of the PCA stadium.

Asian markets trading higher

At 7: 48 am (IST), Asian markets were trading higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 1.19% or 273.40 poinst at 23,333.76. Japan's Nikkei surged 1.20% or 113.38 points at 9,572.46.
Singapore's Straits Times added 0.73% or 22.44 poinst at 3,079.39. South Korea's Seoul Composite rose 0.59% or 12.24 points at 2,084.37. Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted advanced 0.61% or 52.56 points at 8,649.13.China's Shanghai Composite was flat at 2,956.21.

Sensex Fly around 19K

Indian equity benchmarks were mildly positive in opening trade amid a choppy trade. Indices were hovering just around their key psychological levels - the Nifty was around the 5700 level and the Sensex around the 19,000 mark.

Auto, telecom, select technology, Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group and select financial companies' shares were quite supportive. However, cement, realty and select metal stocks were down.

Among frontliners, Hero Honda, Reliance Infrastructure, Reliance Communications, Bajaj Auto, Suzlon Energy, ONGC, L&T, SBI, Wipro, HCL Tech and Bharti Airtel were pushing the markets higher.

However, ACC, Axis Bank, Hindalco, SAIL, Sterlite Industries, Jaiprakash Associates, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Cairn India and NTPC were under selling pressure.

The 50-share NSE Nifty was trading at 5,698, up 11 points and the 30-share BSE Sensex gained 58 points to 19,001.

The CNX Midcap rose 12 points to 7,878. About 506 shares advanced as against 338 shares declined on National Stock Exchange.

Nifty consolidates

The benchmark Nifty was positive in opening trade in the first session of the week, but amid mild gains amid extreme volatility, as the index rallied smartly in previous four sessions following an upmove in global markets.

Almost all asset classes heaved a sigh of relief and perked up during the week on news of slight containment of the nuclear disaster in Japan, says Nandan Chakraborty of ENAM.

He feels that, however, the West Asian crisis may continue to dictate the market direction in the near-term. "The bias is definitely going to be on large caps from here on as the structural story remains intact."

Among frontliners, Tata Motors, Maruti, M&M, Hero Honda, Bajaj Auto, HUL, Reliance Industries, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, SAIL, IDFC, SBI, L&T and Ranbaxy Labs were leading the markets higher in early trade.

However, Infosys, Reliance Communications, Jaiprakash Associates, Sesa Goa, ONGC, NTPC and ICICI Bank were under selling pressure.

At 9:18 hours IST, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading at 18,893, up 77 points and the 50-share NSE Nifty rose 20 points to 5,674. The CNX Midcap gained 22 points to 7,845.