01 August 2012

The world's worst power outages

July 31, 2012: Three power grids across half of India fail in what authorities call overdrawing of the system, leaving a record 620 million people without power for several hours and raising serious concerns about whether the country's outdated infrastructure can meet soaring demands.

July 30, 2012: India's northern electricity grid fails for much of the day, leaving 370 million people without power.

Nov. 10, 2009: Storms near the Itaipu hydroelectric dam on the Paraguay-Brazil border are tentatively blamed for outages that cut power to as many as 60 million people in Brazil for two to three hours. The entire nation of Paraguay, population 7 million, is also briefly blacked out.


January-February 2008: Winter storms cause a nearly two-week blackout to about 4 million people around the central Chinese city of Chenzhou. Eleven technicians reportedly die trying to restore power.

November 2006: A German power company switches off a high voltage line over a river to let a cruise ship pass. It triggers outages for 10 million people in Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

Aug. 18, 2005: An imbalanced power grid kicks power plants offline in Indonesia leaves almost 100 million people in the dark, many for more than five hours.

July 12, 2004: Heavy use of air conditioners and other factors are blamed for blackouts affecting at least 7 million people in Greece just a month before the summer Olympic games.

Sept. 28, 2003: 
A short in a power line in Switzerland leads to blackouts affecting 95 percent of Italy. Some 55 million people are without power for as long as 18 hours.

Aug. 14, 2003: The worst U.S. blackout. Power line problems in the Midwest trigger a cascade of breakdowns that cut power to 50 million people in eight states and Canada, some for more than a day.

March 11, 1999: Lightning hits a power substation in Brazil's Sao Paulo state, leaving 97 million people without power for as long as five hours. An official says it is linked to transmission lines from the Itaipu dam.

March 1989:
 A solar geomagnetic storm knocks out power to 6 million people in the Canadian province of Quebec and parts of the U.S. for nine hours.

July 13, 1977: A lightning bolt knocks out electricity to about 8 million people in New York City. Power isn't fully restored until 25 hours later after widespread looting.

Nov. 9, 1965: The Great Blackout shakes Americans' faith in the power system. A faulty substation relay darkens New York City and thousands of square miles of the U.S. northeast for about 14 hours. Power is out for 25 million people. It inspires the popular film, Where Were You When the Lights Went Out?

31 July 2012

Power crisis again: Northern, Eastern grids fail


The Northern and Eastern Grids tripped today, leading to power failure in several states of the country affecting hundreds of millions of people.
While the Northern Grid collapsed for the second time in two days, the Eastern transmission lines too failed in the afternoon, said officials at the Power Ministry and electricity companies.
Power supply was disrupted in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, West Bengal, Assam and Punjab, among other states.
“Yes, I've heard that the Northern and Eastern grids have failed. We are looking into the matter. We are inquiring,” Power Minister Sushilkumar Shinde said.
The power crisis led to immediate shut-down of Delhi Metro lines in the national capital, while a host of other services including Railways were also affected.
“We are again having problems in Northern Grid,” K Soonee, CEO of Power System Operating Co (PSOC) said.
Power Ministry officials said Eastern Grid has also failed. The reasons for the grid failure were not immediately known.
While an almost 15-hour power crisis was seen in the Northern part yesterday, the crisis today reached the Eastern region as well.
Delhi government officials said the Northern Grid failed around 1.30 pm, when the national capital had a demand of around 4,000 MW. Only 38 MW was being supplied around 1.45 pm.

Again, Blackout. 12 states affected

New Delhi: Power supply to as many as 12 states has been disrupted after the Northern and Eastern supply grids failed. The crisis was allegedly triggered after states like Rajasthan and UP drew much more than their assigned share of power. Sources say UP and Haryana over-drew by 1200 MW each, for example. The supply to Delhi ay 1.30 pm was reduced to an all-time low of 40 MW against its demand of 4000 MW.   

Metro services on all six lines in Delhi have stopped. Upto 300 trains have reportedly been hit across the North. Shatabdis and Rajdhanis have been halted on their tracks.  

100 MWs of emergency power is being provided to VVIP areas in the capital.


A massive outage yesterday - the worst in a decade - left 370 million people in seven states and Delhi without power for many hours. The crisis then was caused by a collapse of the Northern grid.  Metro trains in Delhi yesterday were affected by that huge blackout, causing chaos during the morning rush hour.  500 passenger trains and 1.5 lakh people using them were affected by delays and cancellations.

Power Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde said yesterday that a three-member committee would determine the cause of the crisis. He refused to confirm whether the outage was caused by state like UP and Haryana drawing more than their allotted share of power.  

Blast in Assam: Army vehicles targeted; one jawan killed, 7 injured

Guwahati: At least one jawan was killed and seven others were injured in a high intensity blast in Assam's Goalpara district today. 

According to sources, an improvised explosive device or an IED exploded under an army truck carrying soldiers from Kokrajhar to Agia in Goalpara at around 10:25 am.  A Tata Sumo car travelling along with the truck was also targeted.

Banned outfit United Liberation Front of Asom or ULFA is said to be behind the blast.

RBI Credit Policy

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) macro-economic report has painted a gloomy picture about the Indian economy. It has lowered the FY13 GDP forecast between 6.5 and 7.2% and has noted the upside risk to inflation.

Highlights of macro economic report:

Growth:

The growth picture is pretty dismal. If we did 5.3% in the previous quarter we are likely to do no better in the current quarter. The dangers to growth come even from the global side, which looks pretty bleak now.

Inflation:

The consumer price inflation remains very sticky at double digits. It is not likely to go down because monsoon is questionable at the current juncture. Globally, the harvest is bad and a lot of economies worldwide are stimulating growth through cutting interest rates. Therefore, that could push up commodity prices.

Current account deficit:

The third major factor the report points out is the current account deficit. At the moment, we can't afford 4.2% current account deficit of last year although crude oil prices are falling, service and software exports have fallen.

The RBI has also pointed out that the Nasscom forecast cannot be met. Therefore, in the current year even 2.5% of current account deficit looks difficult to sustain.

No interest rate cut by RBI?

The conclusion one can draw from all this looks like given the inflation expectation and the current account deficit dangers the RBI is unlikely to stimulate demand by cutting interest rate at this juncture.

It believes that the government has to do its bit in the first place by cutting fiscal deficit and using that extra money to stimulate investment so that growth is generated, only then can space be created for monetary policy.

What does the poll indicate?

The CNBC-TV18 poll indicates something very similar although it was taken before the macro economic report. Ninety percent of people who were polled said they don't expect a repo rate cut. Only 10% expect a 25 bps repo rate cut. As far as the CRR is concerned, 90% do not expect a CRR cut; 5% expect 50 bps and another 5% expect a 25 bps.

The more important point that the market will watch out for will be the growth forecast of RBI. The GDP forecast in April was put in at 7.3, 90% of people who were surveyed said that they expect the forecast to be brought down. Of this 90%, 45% said it will be between 6.5 and 7.2.

The other half said it will be below 6.5% that is 6-6.5%. Ten percent people said it will be brought down to between 5.5% and 6%. So, there are people who expect GDP to come at 5 point something in the current year.

A large majority expect RBI’s inflation target to be brought up. Fifty five percent said it will be unchanged, 45% said it can be raised to 6.5% to 7% and few said even above 7%.

Sixty percent expect RBI’s stance to remain unchanged. Fourty percent believe that RBI can adopt a slightly dovish stance in the policy.
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