28 January 2011

Nifty Below 5500

Equity benchmarks completely battered by bleeding in heavyweights on fears that company's earnings may be impacted going forward at 13:30 hours. Foreign money outflow could be another reason that sent the Nifty to break 5500-mark today for the first time since September 6, 2010.

BSE Sensex, Nifty
Weakness is likely to continue in emerging markets for a while, says Adrian Mowat of JPMorgan. "Global investors are moving money out of EMs to domestic markets."

The markets have been seeing drastic fall since quarterly Monetary policy review, wherein the Reserve Bank of India had hiked repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points each. But the RBI governor D Subbarao sent the bad signals by revising Inflation to 7% as against earlier 5.5% it had predicted in November 2010. He expects inflation to moderate from first quarter of 2012. He had not ruled out mid-policy rate action. Even experts believe that rate hikes will be expected from RBI going forward to control rising inflation.

RBI also hinted that if western region shows growth in their economy then FIIs would start pulling out money from India. FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 1,651.41 crore and DIIs were net sellers of Rs 255.59 crore in equities on Thursday, as per provisional data available on NSE.

About 35 out of 50 shares on Nifty were trading below 200 DMA (daily moving average) while 15 out of 50 stocks were trading below 10% of their 200 DMA. Only five stocks out of 50 Nifty stocks were trading over 10% of their 200 DMA.

The 50-share NSE Nifty tanked 110 points to 5,494 and the 30-share BSE Sensex crashed 341 points to 18,344. Nine shares declined for every one share advanced on Nifty.

Gautam Shah of JM Financial warns that Nifty may slip to 5430 and Sensex to 18000 level.

Shah said that the Nifty breaching below 5630 mark is not at all healthy. “It had shown first sign of weakness below 6040,” he reiterated. According to him, oil & gas index may lose 5-10% from current levels. The auto stocks also have got thumbs down from Shah as he thinks it might see 15-20% downside.

The BSE Realty Index has fallen the most today with loss of 5.66%. Auto, Metal and Capital Goods indices were down 3-3.9%. Power, Bank, Healthcare and Oil & Gas slipped 1.5-2.4%.

Major fall was seen in broader indices as compared to benchmarks - the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices lost 3.3-3.5%. About 14.3 shares were under pressure for every one share advanced on National Stock Exchange.

Heavyweights Reliance Industries, TCS, HDFC, SBI and L&T were down 1.8-3%. BHEL, Tata Motors, Sterlite Industries and Hindalco cracked 4% each.

DLF and M&M were top losers on Nifty with 6.35% fall. NTPC and ICICI Bank declined one percent each.

ONGC ahead of its results today, Wipro, HDFC Bank, Bharti and HUL were only gainers.

In midcap space, Money Matters was locked at 5% upper circuit. Andhra Bank, Redington, Aventis Pharma and Shriram City were up 1-1.7%. However, Blue Star, Shree Global, SpiceJet, IVRCL Infrastructure and Cholamandalam lost 9-12.5%.

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