12 May 2011

How traders can gain from tomorrow's Assembly polls

A day before the announcement of assembly results in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Assam, gains from betting on Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is far less rewarding than betting on a Left Party win. The betting rates are 1:10 in favour of UPA and 1:80 for Left parties, market sources told Moneycontrol.com

This means, by betting on UPA win, a trader can earn 10 paisa on every one rupee invested while his bet on Left’s victory will fetch him 80 paisa. However, he has to pay 10 paisa and 80 paisa respectively if the said alliances lose.

The case is different in case of Tamil Nadu. M Karunanidhi-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and J Jayalalitha-led All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) command rates of 1:50 each for winning the Tamil Nadu Assembly polls. This suggests the market expects either of them to emerge a winner.


Most of the market participants believe market is fairly valued at this point of time. It might fall further 1% or 2% but upside can be as high as 5% in next one year. Hence, investors should stick to “buy at every decline” strategy.

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