10 March 2011

Nifty below 5500

Indian equity were witnessing selling pressure today at 10:54 hours on the back of continued worries in Libya. London Brent crude climbed above USD 116 a barrel yesterday, up 3% over previous day's close and NYMEX crude too gained upto USD 105 a barrel, which was worrying factor for global markets.

Libyan leader Gaddafi forces hit oil facilities in Central Libya; crushed rebels with artillery and gunfire in at least two major cities. Asian markets too were under pressure - Shanghai, Nikkei, Kospi and Taiwan fell over 1%. Straits Times and Hang Seng lost over 0.5%.

Ian Scott global head of equity strategy with Nomura says these geo-political (Middle East and North Africa) concerns have had an effect on equity markets particularly some of the big oil importers like India. "Investors are more concerned about the geo-politics than high oil prices. I think stock market can live with oil above USD 100 a barrel if we could get rid of some of the concerns on the geo political side," he adds.

Scott says he prefers developed markets to emerging ones. Nomura has, in fact, cut its exposure in emerging market since the first week of December, moving from an overweight view to an underweight one.

On the rationale behind his stand on emerging markets, he says, "The inflationary backdrop here is bad and is probably going to worsen before getting any better. Also, valuations have been a little stretched, especially in India. The gap in PE multiples between India and other emerging markets (particularly China) needs to narrow down."

The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading at 18,336, down 133 points and the 50-share NSE Nifty slipped 41 points to 5,490. However, the broader indices were flat in trade.

He feels it is too early to come back to Indian markets; "the relative valuations are still high here and there is still some adjustment to take place in terms of monetary policy. We may see some near-term pressure on margins as a result of higher cost as well," he says.

Technology, financial, FMCG, infrastructure and select metal companies' shares were dragging the markets down.

Among frontliners, ICICI Bank, SBI, Tata Power, TCS, Hindalco, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HCL Tech were the top losers with 1-2% fall.

However, Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group companies' shares like Reliance Capital and Reliance Infrastructure gained 3.4% & 1.7%, respectively. Reliance Communications too gained 0.5%. SAIL, Maruti, ACC, Ambuja and Tata Motors were other gainers.

New listing - Acropetal Tech was trading at Rs 121.25, up 34.72% over issue price of Rs 90 a share.

In midcap space, Wockhardt, Bayer Cropscience, HCC, KS Oils and Uttam Galva gained 4-6% while Godfrey Phillip, KGN Industries, AstraZeneca, Kirloskar Oil and Atlas Copco lost 2.5-5%.

In smallcap space, Gokaldas Export, Symphony, TTK Healthcare, Gulf Oil Corp and Ester Inds rallied 7-12% whereas Urja Global, EIH Associated Hotel, Genesys Int, Poly Medicure and OCL Iron fell 5-10%.

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