01 March 2011

Nifty Mark the 5500

Indian equity benchmarks continues their upward march with the Nifty testing the 5500 level, an important psychological level, on the back of value buying in most of the beaten down shares. Auto, financial, infrastructure, oil & gas and metal were on the buyers' radar with thier respective indices up 2% to 5%, adding more than 500 points on the Sensex at 13:58 hours.

Solid growth in auto sales numbers showed that the growth momentum is still on the upward path. Consensus on the street was that the budget 2011 was neutral to positive as there were low expectations. Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley said budget was okay, there was nothing bad in the budget.

"I think there is a sigh of relief that there is nothing untoward in the budget. He (FM) has done a decent balancing act. There were a lot of constituencies to serve."

Ridham Desai, Managing Director, Morgan Stanley said that the government’s move to allow global investors in mutual funds is very positive. Expressing his views on the budget, Desai noted that infra spending going up 27% is a big positive booster. He is expecting positive impact of 50-60 bps on earnings. However, he is little concerned on the revenue and subsidy numbers.

Specifically on the market, Desai said that an upside of 20% is expected on the indices. He has turned neutral from underweight on banks as he thinks valuations of banks and NBFCs are very good.

The budget 2011 was focused mainly on country's growth, boost to infrastructure, reduction in fiscal deficit, increase in foreign inflow and spending on better education for rising young population. It seems that the markets cheered this budget by pushing up the Nifty 170 points to 5,503.

The 30-share BSE Sensex surged 554 points to 18,378. Breadth also improved - about 1058 shares advanced as against 234 shares declined on National Stock Exchange.

Auto stocks were completely on the buyers' radar; the respective index jumped 5%, especially on the back of auto sales numbers and could be because of unchanged in excise duty. Tata Motors, M&M, Bajaj Auto and Maruti shot up 5-8%; Hero Honda was up 2%.

India's largest commercial vehicle maker Tata Motors sold 77,543 units in the month of February as against 69,427 in same period the previous year. Maruti Suzuki sold 1.11 lakh units in the month of February as against 96,650 in same period the previous year.

TVS Motor sold 1.73 lakh total 2-wheelers in February versus 1.40 lakh (YoY). M&M has reported total sales at 33,378 units as against 27,894 units (YoY).

Heavyweights Reliance Industries, TCS, Infosys, BHEL and ITC rallied 2-3%. NTPC and L&T surged 5%.

Private banks like ICICI Bank, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank shot up 4-4.5%; SBI, HDFC, IDFC, PNB and Kotak Mahindra Bank gained 2-4%. DLF from realty segment jumped 4%.

Among others, Sun Pharma, Sterlite, SAIL, Tata Steel, Hindalco, Ranbaxy, JSPL, Dr Reddy's Labs, Ambuja Cements, Cipla, Suzlon and Sesa Goa gained 2-6%.

In midcap space, Stride Arcolab, United Breweries, Glenmark, GMDC and Gujarat Gas were up 9-17% while Kirloskar Brothers, Rei Agro, Godfrey Phillip, KGN Industries and EIH fell 2-5%.

In smallcap space, KRBL, Shasun Pharma, Force Motors, Hinduja Foundries and Federal-Mogul gained 10-14% whereas Surana Inds, EIH Associated Hotel, Parenteral Drug, Urja Global and Hinduja Venture lost 5-9%.

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